performance prediction - coach Russ Hart

Here's some pace advice from Russ Hart, who is coaching the Cornbelt Running Club marathon training program and track program.  It looks like Russ is following Jack Daniel's running guidance for this as well as his track workout.  Jack Daniel's Running Formula is among the most widely cited "scientific" books of running.


Just for grins...I looked up what a roughly 5:30 miler would get done.  Not that this is anybody I would know.


From Jack Daniels -
18:40 5k...check.
1:25 Half...not yet, close
2:58 Marathon...Wow.


Looked at Matt Fitzgerald's Brain Training for Runners...exactly the same.  He follow's Daniels.  Then I looked up Run Less Run Faster....3:02 marathon....hmm.


I think I need to put these things away and worry about my 100 miler in 3 weeks...Marathon for next year.


-Larry
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Marathon Pace goal setting
Coach Russ Hart


By now you probably realize that our training program is heavily based on pacing. We do
a certain pace for long runs, a different pace for tempo runs, and still another pace for
speed work. Each pace is based on what we call “goal marathon pace” or “goal halfmarathon
pace”. I suspect (actually I’m pretty sure!) many of you don’t have any idea
how to set a realistic marathon goal pace. What I’ll try to do here is explain how to get
reasonably close to a reasonable goal pace based on current race performance.


There are many versions of “race equivalence charts”. They don’t always agree exactly
but they all provide numbers that are roughly equivalent and certainly good enough to
guide new marathoners in selecting appropriate goal pace. All of these charts are based
on the fact that a runner’s race pace slows as the race distance gets longer. Each runner’s
race pace at the shorter distances is affected by genetics, training, environment, and other
variables but can be used to predict a marathon goal pace assuming the completion of
appropriate marathon targeted training. These charts do not say that if you can run a
5K in 20 minutes today you should be able to run a 3:15 marathon tomorrow. What they
do say is that if you are capable of consistently running 5K in about 20 minutes, you
should be able to train for and complete a marathon in approximately 3:15.


To use the table, find a time for several recent shorter races in the table (you can
interpolate between listed times) and follow that line to the suggested marathon goal time
(and pace) in the far right column (next to last column for the half). This time is a good
starting point for your goal race time (and pace).


Since each runner is different, with different strengths and weaknesses, a single line
through the table does not always accurately predict race times for all distances. Let’s
take a fictitious runner named Sally Stamina. Sally has rarely been able to complete a 5k
in less than 30 minutes so the table predicts a goal marathon time of 4:45 to 4:50.
However, Sally has run several half-marathons in approximately 2:10. Her half-marathon
times are a better predictor of her appropriate marathon goal time than her 5K times and
she could certainly choose to train for a sub 4:30 marathon. (She could probably improve
her 5K times by doing more speed work – but that’s a topic for another time!)